2-1 on the early season as the Cowgirls push the tease to a 1-teamer (sorry, Lav, for the terrible line [+0.5] that you got)!
tampa bay buccaneers -3 (buy 1/2)
smells like a trap, much like my lions pick last week, but my philosophy is simple - bet on teams with talent and hope they win, versus betting on shitty teams and praying that they get a backdoor cover. this one has all signs of a TB win, with the x-factor being Favre/Lambeau.
however, here are a couple of green bay september trends:
- - 1-6 ats last 7 at home vs non div opp
- - 4-11 ats last 15 off ats loss
green bay is also 1-3 ats last 4 games against tampa bay
public is all over tampa -- not a good sign -- but chris berman picked green bay, and he's exactly the type of football guy you want to fade! the swami has to be one of the shittiest nfl pickers in all of the land. fade the swami! fade the swami!
---
the skinny:
bubba franks didn't practice on friday and will be a gametime decision. he was expected to be a huge factor against the best defensive team in the world. even if he plays, a bum hip injury will limit his effectiveness. tampa will take away ahman green (when's the last time green actually played well anyhoo?), forcing favre to look downfield all day long. problem is, he'll be facing the #2 pass D in the league. with the loss of walker at WR, the pack is forced to make donald driver their #1 target; even if he plays well, driver's not a difference-maker. tampa will stuff 7 in the box and play a cover 2 D, cheating toward donald driver, neutralizing what little threat GB has. no franks at TE, no walker at WR, no speedy ahman green of yesteryear, the pack simply has no weapons.
tampa should expose GB’s defense for what it is – terrible! GB is #12 in the NFC against the pass (#23 in the NFL) and are very susceptible to the long ball. tampa possesses the #1 running game behind the legs of carnell “cadillac” williams, the rookie sensation, who’s averaging 5.4 ypc. when caddy needs a rest, michael pittman is very capable of providing some big plays. tampa’s running game should set up a nice day for brian griese, with michael clayton and joey galloway running amuck against a weak GB secondary.
obviously, it's scary to bet against GB at home, but september isn't GB's best month, either. GB should be renamed "sickbay." i'm not sure if they even have named a starter at left corner yet - joey thomas, although probable, missed practice due to "recurring headaches." my gosh, if there's ever a team that has one foot in the grave, GB is it.
tampa wins this one going away, probably by a big number - the only thing that will limit their offense is the scattered thunderstorms in GB, but if it comes down to special teams and the running game, TB wins the matchup. i’ll take the more talented team on both sides of the ball any day of the week, especially with only a FG chalk. i think the lambeau “mystique” has lost its luster, and it’s time for favre to move on – it appears as though it’s going to be a lonnnnnnnnng season for him.
pirates 34, cheese-dogs 16
10 comments:
other early looks:
NYG
KC
JAX
ATL
TRENDS:
BUF: 3-0 L3 H V.ATL
NE: 5-1 L6/4-1 L5A V.PIT
JAX: 3-0 L3 V.NYJ
CIN: 3-1 L4/3-0 L3A V.CHI
DEN: 4-1 L5/4-0 L4H V.KC
NYG: 3-1 L4 V.SD
DAL: 2-7 L9 A V.SF
Therefore, I'll definitely stay away from KC and ATL. I think NYG and JAX win their games outright, so adding some points will be nice. Here's another play:
7-PT TEASE: NYG +13, JAX +9.5
public is all over SD; i think NYG keep it pretty tight. also think both teams will try to run it, keeping the scoring low. so, i'll also action another 7-PT with NYG +14, U51
LaDanian Tomlinson just said you should have given the money straight to him. :)
P.S.- I liked your TB bet, but those road favs are always risky. A lot of them look so effin easy, and your analysis won the "Lavinius Analysis of the Week" award. But the result was "Cooch Fell into the Trap Again" award.
You'll bounce back next week, though. I firmly believe that. I'll be on board next week fo' sho'. Unless of course you bet another road favorite.
Kyle Orton says hello. :)
like i said, i'll bet the better team and hope they cover... that's NFL baby!!! and that's exactly why i bet them light early...
even after an 0-2 wk w/ the main picks, i still have less losses on the year (3) than you had in week 1!
:)
i like this as a prime play (vs. a "for the hell of it," or "action play at the last minute."
DENVER/KC U48 (buy 1/2)
ok, i'm not much into totals, but we've got two potential power running teams against solid fronts (front 7s, that is). 48 seems like a large number to me, especially with KC's #3 running game...
Nah, I only laid money down on Houston and SD in week 1, so you do have more losses than me. But look on the bright side- at least your winning % is higher. And you know who Kyle Orton is now. :)
Who covered Casey in 2005?
PITT/BUFFALO, YES
SAN DIEGO/DALLAS, YES
KYLE ORTON, NO
LADAINIAN, NO
TAMPA BAY, NO
DEN/KC UNDER, YES
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