NFL Week 2

started off with a W last week as Pitt and Buff easily covered the tease...

every once in a while i'll look through the lines and spot a number that sticks out like a sore thumb - so much that i tend to overthink the pick. the line that seems out of whack to me is:

DETROIT LIONS -1

first of all, let me start by saying that i NEVER bet the lions on the road, but will make the exception here. for a -1 line, it's basically a SU play, which means value to me... other than LB, the lions have a better team all-around. the biggest wild-card here is jason hanson - with a hamstring injury in the season opener, he's listed as questionable. i think his impact on this game will be minimal though, as i believe detroit will punch in more TDs than field goals.

chicago will rely on rookie qb kyle orton (who the hell is he?) to carry the offense. to me, that means detroit will stuff men in the box to stop the run and force orton to beat them deep. basically, chicago has no weapons and i don't see them generating much offense, much like they didn't against the redskins last week...

i dunno, this smells like a blowout (a trap, if you will), with detroit winning it going away. i wouldn't be surprised to see detroit win by 20+. i also wouldn't be surprised to see detroit totally collapse and remind me once again why i don't bet them on the road.

however, betting light early in the season, this line seems pretty tasty. making an action play here is the only way this game becomes interesting...


7 PT TEASE: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS +10, DALLAS COWBOYS +1

normally i stay away from betting my beloved cowboys, but they've won 14 of the last 15 games against the skins, and it looks like more of the same here. the cowboys' big 3 (aikman, emmitt, and irvin) will be inducted into the cowboys' ring of honor, so that should provide an emotional spark. the cowboys proved they could stop the run by limiting studly ladainian to under 100 yards last week, so expect the same performance against clinton portis and a hapless skins' offense. special teams may play a big role as the skins' PK, john hall, strained a quad and probably won't play against the boys. additionally, the skins' punter is a rookie with an average leg, and the skins' backup PK (nick novak) was cut by the cowboys in training camp in favor of the boys' current PK, jose cortez. nick proved to be average within 40 yards, but i doubt he'll see many (if any) attempts at 40+. the boys' biggest weakness may be in their deep coverage, but look for them to cheat deep while their front D line takes care of business. brunell is immobile and his skills have diminished greatly, so don't expect much from him.

on the flipside, the chargers should win the game SU against the broncos, so the points appear to be a bonus. antonio gates returns to SD's lineup, which should give brees another option and less stress. although denver's LB corp is superb, their front line is relatively weak (ebenezer ekuban and mike myers were cowboys' castoffs and were generally ineffective at pressuring the QB). plummer is erratic and unpredictable, and mike anderson is questionable with bruised ribs. additionally, champ bailey separated his shoulder last week, so he won't be 100% - if he plays. at the very least, the chahhhhgahs should keep it close, if not win outright.