Saturday, October 22, 2005

NFL Week 7

Lots o' plays:

New Orleans +3 over St. Louis

Bulger likely will be out again which means we get to see Martin at QB one more week. Saints have beaten Carolina on the road this year. Why not the Rams?

Cleveland -3 over Detroit

Cleveland at home laying the trey is a lot better than playing Detroit on the road against anybody. Cooch can vouch for me there. Detroit comes into the Dawg Pound off a heartbreaking loss at home to Carolina and with the 30th ranked yardage offense in the NFL. Detroit will find another way to fuck it up yet again on the road.

Pitt +1 over Cincy

I played Pitt as an underdog at San Diego coming off a loss and had success. Pitt needs this win to stay close in the division race. They get Ben Whatshisname back this week, so that will help. Cincy's schedule hasn't impressed me. Think they come down to earth here.

Philly -3.5 over San Diego

Love Philly at home. Love em even more off a loss and a bye week. SD's had to do a lot of travelling this year. Can't see them beating Philly in this spot.

Tennessee +4.5 over Arizona

Arizona shouldn't be laying this many points to anybody. Tennessee's had a tough schedule this year. Certainly tougher than Arizona's. Whether McNair or Volek at QB- I still like Tenneseee. Very winnable game for them and the 4.5 pts is a bonus.

Seattle -4 over Dallas

Flozell Adams, Dallas' LT and protector of Drew Deadsoe's blind spot, is out. Julius Jones, the starting tailback, is also out. Tough spot for the 'boys here. Seattle's got the #1 ranked yardage offense in the league and might have too much firepower for Dallas here. If Dallas can't get a running game going, they're going to be very one-dimensional, which means Seattle's 4th ranked sack unit is gonna tee off on Nancy Drew all day long.

NY Giants -2.5 over Denver

Color me "not sold" on Denver. Even with their 5-1 record, they're still 22nd in the league in yardage defense, including 26th against the pass. Well, they just so happen to be going against a team that's 11th in the NFL in passing yardage. Giants off a tough overtime loss should come out fired up here. Denver, on the other hand, might not be so focused for this one following the NE win. I think Eli puts on a show here and Plummer throws a couple picks.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Cooch is on the NYG bandwagon this week, as is most of the betting nation, which always makes me nervous.

Anyhoo, it's value play central this week...

NYG -2
ATL -7
GRB -1 (BUY 1/2)
SF +14 (line @ 5Dimes; or buy 1/2)
STL -3
TEN +5

7 PT TEASE: DENVER +9, DALLAS +11

Normally, I don't try to "middle" bets, but I'm taking insurance on Denver against the NYG since the public loves the mighty Giants.

lavinius said...

Like all your picks but two. GB/Minny could go either way (Favre struggles in domes), and laying points with St. Louis with Martin at QB isn't a winning proposition in the long term. Saints have had a lot of success in STL over the years and play them tough every year.

Anonymous said...

i'm feeling lucky to be 11-11 on the season at this point... i should be something like 15-7, but i've been the victim of multiple 20+ point turnarounds to chalk up some losses (as lav has also noted, i've been the victim of multiple 30-pt. turnarounds, too).

i mean, green bay's up 17-0 and seemingly in control, but they fall asleep, allow minny to score 20 unanswered pts., and lose on a 56-yd. FG when it seemed that favre may be in position to squeek out an OT win...