NFL Week 5

Gonna try my luck with this one:

Miami +3 over Buffalo

With the way the Bills are playing, they should not be favored against anybody. This is a dismal, dismal team offensively. The offensive line is pathetic, the QB play is pathetic, and now they're gonna plug in Kelly Holcomb to try and "right the ship." This is actually a bad idea. JP Losman's scrambling ability actually plays to his advantage behind this swiss cheese O-line. With Holcomb being a pocket QB, he's gonna be sitting duck.

As for the Phins, they're coming off a bye week. They look like a much improved team under Saban. Certainly a better coached team than the Bills. I expect him to put together the better game plan this week. Miami already has impressive wins against Denver and Carolina this year, albeit both at home. This Bills game on the road is very winnable for them. Their D should give a Bills team that can't move the football, problems. The Bills against a 30th ranked Saints D last week could only muster an opening drive TD.

Furthermore, Spikes (their emotional leader on D) went down with a season ending injury two weeks ago, and now, their best interior lineman Ron Edwards underwent season ending shoulder surgery this week. That's two key cogs missing from the Bills' D. Look for Miami to run the ball effectively here with Brown and Williams.

This looks like a very solid play here. I see a line of 3. If you have to, buy the 1/2 pt for this one.