The starting nine as presently constituted, and likely go into the season with:
Lugo
Youk
Papi
Manny
Drew
Lowell
Tek
Pedroia
Crisp
Good speed and OBP at the top
Outstanding power bats/OBP in the middle
Solid 6 hitter, declining but serviceable #7 hitter
Unproven yet promising #8 hitter
Well above avg #9 hitter
I have Coco 9th because I want him back to back with Lugo. Them hitting back to back allows the Sox to do some things on the bases (double steal, hit and run, better chance of going from 1st to 3rd on a single, essentially be more aggressive on the basepaths). Pedroia's production (or lack thereof) in the 8 hole will dictate whether or not he's more suited for the 8 or 9 hole. Preferably, I'd like to see the two speedsters hitting back to back.
The starting rotation is looking like this (assuming we don't whiff on a closer and Papelbon isn't moved back there):
Schilling
Dice-K
Beckett
Papelbon
Wakefield
That's as solid a starting five as you're gonna get. Look for Lester to be integrated into this rotation as well as the season progresses, giving the team six above average starters in their respective spots in the rotation.
A quick aside-- I watched some video clips of Dice-K last night both in Japan and in the WBC. He was extremely impressive. I loved his mound demeanor (very Pedro-esque in that respect). He's portrays a very calm like confidence giving off the aura that he's in charge. I love seeing that out of pitchers. He has a fastball that gets up into the mid 90's that he's able to throw by hitters consistently. He loves burying that fastball on the inside corner to right handed hitters. He's very effective doing that.
Offsetting the fastball is an 80 mph screwball/gyro ball that seems to fall off the table. It has the illusion of a knee/waist high strike, then at the very last second falls off the table.
He also mixed in a slider and a change-up, giving him four effective pitches.
Performance wise, he was as good as it gets in Japan. Probably the best pitcher in Japan during his time there. In his final season there, he was 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA. In 186.1 innings, he struck out 200 while walking just 34!
Did I mention 14 complete games?
He dominated the WBC too, taking home the MVP honors there. He went 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA en route to leading Japan to the title.
He finished his Japanese baseball career with a 108-60 record with a 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in eight seasons.
Basically, he's dominated at every level he's pitched at. The big leagues is the next logical step.
He will have to overcome a few obstacles, however. In Japan, he pitched on six days of rest. Over here he's gonna have to pitch on five. Will he make the transition? My guess is yes. Don't look for him to tally 14 complete games, however. :)
As for the other starters, I expect Curt to go out on a positive note. I'd look for 15+ wins out of him. Beckett's second season in the AL should be an improvement over his first. I wouldn't expect a 5+ ERA again.
Papelbon is conditioning his arm for 150+ innings of work, and it'll be better for his shoulder/arm to pitch every fifth day as opposed to 2-3 times/week as a closer. I'd only advocate a move back to the closer's role this year should we whiff on acquiring a featured closer this offseason.
Wakefield as a #5 might be the best #5 in baseball. He's always a lock for double digit wins. You won't find many #5s that win ya 10+ games with an ERA in the low to mid 4's.
Now, where things get dicey is the 'pen. Okajima I think can be a decent arm for us both in short inning work and as a lefty specialist. He might even emerge as the featured set-up guy on this team. With 681 K's in 642 innings over in Japan, he's proven his worth as a K pitcher. Look for him to get some situational work, and if successful, will see increased work as a short inning man and set up guy.
Timlin? I'd look for him to receive the primary set-up duties. We know what we get out of him: solid, unspectacular ball. Probably below average as far as set-up men goes; certainly below average for a set-up man on a playoff team to be sure. I'd like to see him more in a 7th inning role and us go out and get a guy in the Scot Shields/Brandon Donnely mold.
Delcarmen is a good young arm in our 'pen; more polished than Hansen at their respective stages of their careers. I look for him to see more high leverage situations in '07. Last year, he had a decent K to BB ratio of 45/17 (close to 3 to 1) in 53.1 innings. His 68 hits allowed over that time is a bit high for my blood. He must get that number down if he's going to emerge as a 7th inning go-to guy for us. Natural maturation will help there.
A sleeper in the group could be Devern Hansack. He posted impressive numbers last year, albeit with a small sample size. In 10 innings, he posted a 8 to 1 K/BB ratio, accompanied by a WHIP of 0.70 and a BAA of .171. Very good numbers that certainly warrant a further look. I would like to see him get a shot in our 'pen to see if he can build off last year's numbers.
As for Hansen, he might have the greatest upside in our 'pen, but he needs more seasoning. In order to be an effective reliever at this level, he needs a dominant offspeed pitch to offset his fastball. I heard Francona say something in a press conference I thought rang true: "it doesn't matter if you throw 1000 mph...if it's straight, it's gonna get turned around." That was the case with Hansen last year. If he wants to transition into the future closer of this team, he needs to command at least one other pitch, preferably of the off-speed variety.
Outside of that, this team needs a closer. Where will it come from? Will we trade away a Murphy, Ellsbury, WMP, or somebody of that ilk to acquire one? You'd hate to see this season go into the tank because of an inability to hold a 8th/9th inning lead. To me, I do whatever I can to get a featured closer in here, whether it's Cordero (WASH), Gonzalez, (PITT), or somebody of a similar caliber, but this team must go into the season with a featured closer. I don't want to go through April-June with a shaky closer, fall X amount of games behind the Yankees as a result, and be forced to acquire one at the deadline. Ideally, I'd like to get our closer now. And again, Papelbon would be a "last resort" kind of thing.
Well, that's my state of the team. I really believe we have the offense and the starting pitching to win it all. The big question marks will be the defense and the bullpen. Hopefully the front office will be just as diligent repairing those areas of the team as it was repairing the right field/#5 hitter, SS, and front end starting pitcher holes.
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7 comments:
given tito's tendencies, my guess is that he'll put lowell behind drew so he can alternate L (drew), R (lowell), L/R (vtek).
Lugo
Youk
Papi
Manny
Drew
Lowell
Tek
Pedroia
Crisp
also, look for the sox to find some junky-ass lower-than-average arms to fill in the middle of the pen - i'd also think, especially given the large cash expenditures already, the sox will pursue a decent-or-better closer. wouldn't make sense to have a starting pitcher they've spent $17mn/year on (e.g., matsuzakisanomondo) to then hand the game over to an average-or-worse closer...
You are correct. Lowell and Tek should be flipped. Done.
I think a middle relief crew of MDC, Timlin, Okajima, and Hansack is passable-- at least to start the season with anyway. If we're really bad there, and it's possible, we can always go out and make a trade.
Since we're going relatively low cost with our middle relief, this gives the Sox carte blanche to open up the wallet once again for a closer.
My "Plan A" choices would be:
Cordero (WAS)
Gonzalez (PIT)
Plan B would be:
Otsuka (TEX)
Broxton (LAD)
Otsuka would be hard to pry loose as I don't foresee Texas putting all their eggs in the Gagne basket. I imagine they'll want to keep Otsuka around for insurance.
Broxton I like a lot. Live arm, closer's stuff...
A Plan C guy would be somebody along the lines of a Dotel. He'd only be an option if things reached a critical desperation point.
How could I have forgotten about Tavarez in my middle relief analysis? He'd throw a temper tantrum if he found out I excluded him.
CL: Acquisition
S/U- Timlin/Okajima
S/R- MDC
S/LR- Tavarez
S/LR- Hansack
Tavarez and Hansack would be relegated to both short and long relief. You need at least one or two guys that are able to eat up innings in the event the starter doesn't go 5 innings, you have a 13+ inning game, or any/all our top three guys need a rest.
I'm willing to go into the season with that relief corps, realizing that's probably far from a finished product. More like a work in progress. We can realistically add one more piece this off-season, either a bona fide set-up man or a closer, and add the remaining piece sometime during the season.
Also, if push comes to shove and we have to move Papelbon back to closer, Tavarez proved late last year he's capable of holding down the #5 role.
I think ultimately the 'pen will find a way to work itself out. Of course I say that with my red and white glasses on... :)
sox need to make a strong push for cordero. history sides with the sox and expos/nats in trades. i think pit's looking for a left-handed power bat, which leaves the sox out of the mix.
i'd suspect the sox will make a legit push for cordero...
Brendan Donnelly is a nice start. He gives us the upgrade we need over Timlin and allows us to move Timlin to the 7th inning where he's more suited.
JC Romero? Historically a decent reliever, but he was shelled last year. Not nearly as high on this acquisition as I am Donnelly's.
The revised 'pen:
CL- TBD
S/U- Donnelly
7th- Timlin
S/R- MDC
S/LR- Tavarez
Lefties- Okajima/Romero
Things are looking a little better. An ominous hole still looms at closer...
Romero's ERA and WHIP over his career:
'99: 3.72, 1.34
'00: 7.02, 1.77
'01: 6.23, 1.46
'02: 1.89, 1.21
'03: 5.00, 1.71
'04: 3.51, 1.33
'05: 3.47, 1.56
'06: 6.70, 1.76
Talk about a Russian Roulette career. In his eight seasons, he's had 4 average/above average seasons and 4 bad/downright horrible seasons. You literally don't know what this guy is gonna give you. It could land on red just as likely as it could land on black.
That being said, I think his '02 dominance is a distant object in the rear view mirror. Looking at it optimistically, we'd be fortunate to get '04/'05 numbers. I think a high WHIP is unavoidable, however. He has a career WHIP a hair over 1.5, has K/BB ratios dangerously close to one, and has issued free passes at a rate of one every 1.46-1.70 innings the last two seasons.
My verdict? A classic "buy low" guy. He's been up and down his whole career and is coming off a down year. For a team like the Sox looking to catch lightning in a bottle in a suspect pen, it's a worthwhile gamble to throw 1.6 at a guy who's put together some solid seasons in his career. The only thing consistent about his career is that it's inconsistent. The Sox are obviously hoping for a bounce back season.
Worse case scenario is you have the 2007 version of Seanez on your hands and you have to cut bait mid-season. With a very manageable contract given the current marketplace (the market doesn't seem to be as lucrative for middle relievers), Romero would be very release-able relatively speaking. But the one thing the Sox can hang their hats on is he's a southpaw (which every team has a need and premium for) who held lefties to a .211 average last season despite his horrific season. Because of that, expect the Sox to have a longer leash with Romero than they did with Seanez simply because the team would have a fall back plan should he implode in short relief.
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