The starting nine as presently constituted, and likely go into the season with:
Lugo
Youk
Papi
Manny
Drew
Lowell
Tek
Pedroia
Crisp
Good speed and OBP at the top
Outstanding power bats/OBP in the middle
Solid 6 hitter, declining but serviceable #7 hitter
Unproven yet promising #8 hitter
Well above avg #9 hitter
I have Coco 9th because I want him back to back with Lugo. Them hitting back to back allows the Sox to do some things on the bases (double steal, hit and run, better chance of going from 1st to 3rd on a single, essentially be more aggressive on the basepaths). Pedroia's production (or lack thereof) in the 8 hole will dictate whether or not he's more suited for the 8 or 9 hole. Preferably, I'd like to see the two speedsters hitting back to back.
The starting rotation is looking like this (assuming we don't whiff on a closer and Papelbon isn't moved back there):
Schilling
Dice-K
Beckett
Papelbon
Wakefield
That's as solid a starting five as you're gonna get. Look for Lester to be integrated into this rotation as well as the season progresses, giving the team six above average starters in their respective spots in the rotation.
A quick aside-- I watched some video clips of Dice-K last night both in Japan and in the WBC. He was extremely impressive. I loved his mound demeanor (very Pedro-esque in that respect). He's portrays a very calm like confidence giving off the aura that he's in charge. I love seeing that out of pitchers. He has a fastball that gets up into the mid 90's that he's able to throw by hitters consistently. He loves burying that fastball on the inside corner to right handed hitters. He's very effective doing that.
Offsetting the fastball is an 80 mph screwball/gyro ball that seems to fall off the table. It has the illusion of a knee/waist high strike, then at the very last second falls off the table.
He also mixed in a slider and a change-up, giving him four effective pitches.
Performance wise, he was as good as it gets in Japan. Probably the best pitcher in Japan during his time there. In his final season there, he was 17-5 with a 2.13 ERA. In 186.1 innings, he struck out 200 while walking just 34!
Did I mention 14 complete games?
He dominated the WBC too, taking home the MVP honors there. He went 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA en route to leading Japan to the title.
He finished his Japanese baseball career with a 108-60 record with a 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in eight seasons.
Basically, he's dominated at every level he's pitched at. The big leagues is the next logical step.
He will have to overcome a few obstacles, however. In Japan, he pitched on six days of rest. Over here he's gonna have to pitch on five. Will he make the transition? My guess is yes. Don't look for him to tally 14 complete games, however. :)
As for the other starters, I expect Curt to go out on a positive note. I'd look for 15+ wins out of him. Beckett's second season in the AL should be an improvement over his first. I wouldn't expect a 5+ ERA again.
Papelbon is conditioning his arm for 150+ innings of work, and it'll be better for his shoulder/arm to pitch every fifth day as opposed to 2-3 times/week as a closer. I'd only advocate a move back to the closer's role this year should we whiff on acquiring a featured closer this offseason.
Wakefield as a #5 might be the best #5 in baseball. He's always a lock for double digit wins. You won't find many #5s that win ya 10+ games with an ERA in the low to mid 4's.
Now, where things get dicey is the 'pen. Okajima I think can be a decent arm for us both in short inning work and as a lefty specialist. He might even emerge as the featured set-up guy on this team. With 681 K's in 642 innings over in Japan, he's proven his worth as a K pitcher. Look for him to get some situational work, and if successful, will see increased work as a short inning man and set up guy.
Timlin? I'd look for him to receive the primary set-up duties. We know what we get out of him: solid, unspectacular ball. Probably below average as far as set-up men goes; certainly below average for a set-up man on a playoff team to be sure. I'd like to see him more in a 7th inning role and us go out and get a guy in the Scot Shields/Brandon Donnely mold.
Delcarmen is a good young arm in our 'pen; more polished than Hansen at their respective stages of their careers. I look for him to see more high leverage situations in '07. Last year, he had a decent K to BB ratio of 45/17 (close to 3 to 1) in 53.1 innings. His 68 hits allowed over that time is a bit high for my blood. He must get that number down if he's going to emerge as a 7th inning go-to guy for us. Natural maturation will help there.
A sleeper in the group could be Devern Hansack. He posted impressive numbers last year, albeit with a small sample size. In 10 innings, he posted a 8 to 1 K/BB ratio, accompanied by a WHIP of 0.70 and a BAA of .171. Very good numbers that certainly warrant a further look. I would like to see him get a shot in our 'pen to see if he can build off last year's numbers.
As for Hansen, he might have the greatest upside in our 'pen, but he needs more seasoning. In order to be an effective reliever at this level, he needs a dominant offspeed pitch to offset his fastball. I heard Francona say something in a press conference I thought rang true: "it doesn't matter if you throw 1000 mph...if it's straight, it's gonna get turned around." That was the case with Hansen last year. If he wants to transition into the future closer of this team, he needs to command at least one other pitch, preferably of the off-speed variety.
Outside of that, this team needs a closer. Where will it come from? Will we trade away a Murphy, Ellsbury, WMP, or somebody of that ilk to acquire one? You'd hate to see this season go into the tank because of an inability to hold a 8th/9th inning lead. To me, I do whatever I can to get a featured closer in here, whether it's Cordero (WASH), Gonzalez, (PITT), or somebody of a similar caliber, but this team must go into the season with a featured closer. I don't want to go through April-June with a shaky closer, fall X amount of games behind the Yankees as a result, and be forced to acquire one at the deadline. Ideally, I'd like to get our closer now. And again, Papelbon would be a "last resort" kind of thing.
Well, that's my state of the team. I really believe we have the offense and the starting pitching to win it all. The big question marks will be the defense and the bullpen. Hopefully the front office will be just as diligent repairing those areas of the team as it was repairing the right field/#5 hitter, SS, and front end starting pitcher holes.
Former Celtics great Johnson dies at 52
